• Purpose: This study aims to assess, design, and recommend Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) and ecosystem restoration interventions in Narayanganj to enhance climate resilience and mitigate climate-related risks. The primary focus areas include improving water management, reducing urban flooding, and enhancing environmental sustainability. The consultant will undertake a climate risk assessment in Narayanganj, Bangladesh, and identify strategies and measures to assist the community in adapting to the identified climate change risks. This undertaking evaluates various options, including infrastructure improvements, climate-smart WASH, land use planning, ecosystem restoration, and policy changes to bolster resilience. The study is part of the Climate Change Adaptation Narayanganj project.
• Timeframe: October- December 2023 (30 days)
• Locations: Bangladesh: Dhaka and Narayanganj (Sumil Para & Rishi Para).

Background

British Red Cross (BRC)

The British Red Cross, in collaboration with the Bangladesh Red Crescent (BDRCS), is actively implementing nationwide resilience-building programmes spanning urban and rural settings. In 2022, a new programme was designed to address one of Bangladesh’s most pressing challenges, both in the present and future: climate change adaptation. This initiative was developed through extensive consultations with city corporations, local communities, and various stakeholders.

Scheduled for implementation from 2023 to 2026, this programme is set to deliver cutting-edge and context-specific support to urban communities, empowering them to effectively adapt to the increasing threats of flooding, waterlogging, and heat, all exacerbated by changing climate patterns. The cornerstone of this program’s design process revolves around three key areas: climate-smart WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene), Disaster Risk Reduction and Management, and environmental management with a particular emphasis on nature-based solutions. The specific area of implementation is in two of Narayanganj’s most deprived areas: Rishipara and Sumilpara.

Programme/project background

The programme aims to strengthen resilience in the target communities while integrating climate change considerations into its activities. Projections for Narayanganj’s future paint a bleak picture, as the adverse impacts of climate change are expected to intensify. A comprehensive analysis of historical data spanning 42 years, from 1979 to 2019, underscores the profound influence of climate change on the community.

The rapid migration from rural to urban areas has led to unplanned urban expansion, disrupting natural water flow, compromising drainage systems, and heightening the risks of urban flooding and waterlogging. Much like other underserved regions in developing nations, Narayanganj faces heightened vulnerability due to limited and poorly managed drainage systems, often obstructed by solid waste. The prevalence of intense and frequent climate events, such as heavy rainfall or heat waves, poses grave threats, resulting in loss of livelihoods, disruption of daily life, water contamination, and health issues.

Among the most susceptible are densely populated urban districts like Rishipara and Sumilpara, particularly marginalised communities, which face an elevated likelihood of climate-induced variations and urban flooding due to the impacts of climate change.

Purpose and scope of the consultancy

• To assess, design, and recommend Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) and ecosystem restoration interventions that enhance climate resilience and mitigate climate-related risks in Narayanganj, focusing on improving water management, reducing urban flooding and the heat island effect, and enhancing environmental sustainability.
• Identify and recommend feasible nature-based solutions that can address the existing climate risks of target communities.
• Conduct a comprehensive climate risk assessment and identify strategies and measures to aid communities in adapting to identified climate change risks.
• Undertake an ecosystem assessment and describe the broader ecological landscape in which the target communities in Narayanganj are located. Determine the current and forthcoming vulnerabilities and threats (both anthropogenic and natural, including hazards and climate change) to the ecosystems and ecosystem services upon which target communities rely.
• Map out land use in target communities (Rishipara and Sumilpara) and the broader context of Narayanganj.
• Identify key constraints, challenges, and ways forward to implement climate change adaptation/nature-based initiatives.
• The study’s geographical coverage encompasses the programme’s target communities (Rishipara and Sumilpara), including households, communities, schools, and the broader context of Narayanganj.

Users and uses of the study

• The “Climate Change Adaptation Programme” team will use this study to plan the programme’s interventions. The study results are crucial to ensuring that the programme considers climate issues and designs nature-based solutions and climate adaptation actions based on climate risk and ecosystem assessments.
• The study findings will be shared with local stakeholders, including affected communities, development partners, Red Cross and Red Crescent partners, and the City Corporation.

Approach and methodology

The specific methodology will be detailed in close consultation between the consultant, management team, commissioner and relevant key stakeholders. Still, it will draw upon the following mixed methods or other sampling methods considered applicable to the context (to be identified and presented in the inception report):

• The methodology must consider:
  • Literature review on the impact and potential risk of climate change on socio-economic security in Bangladesh. This includes the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report for Narayanganj, the IFRC Nature Navigator, the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, the Bangladesh National Adaptation Programme of Action etc.
  • Use of primary data collection: Conduct interviews and surveys with local residents and key informants to understand community perceptions and experiences related to the impacts of climate change. Engage with government agencies, NGOs, and development partners through workshops, focus group discussions, and interviews.
  • Gathering information on current land use, drainage systems, solid waste management, and other relevant infrastructure in the target communities (Rishipara and Sumilpara).
  • Conduct an ecosystem assessment to understand the current state of local ecosystems and ecosystem services and their vulnerabilities to anthropogenic and natural threats.
  • Analyse climate data to identify trends and projections related to temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events.
  • Use climate modelling and projections to assess future climate risks in Narayanganj.
  • Map out vulnerable areas prone to urban flooding, waterlogging, and heat island effects based on climate data and existing urban development.
  • Identify the current state and health of local ecosystems, including wetlands, rivers, and green spaces and assess their vulnerabilities to anthropogenic factors and natural hazards, such as flooding.
• A validation workshop will be held to present and validate initial findings with key stakeholders.
• The draft report must be shared at least 10 working days before the dissemination meeting to allow time for feedback/consultation.
• A dissemination meeting will be organised with the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement Partners (BDRCS, BRC, IFRC, ICRC, other partner national societies, RCRC climate centre) as well as external partners (government, UN agencies, academia, and other local stakeholders), to communicate the results of the study and recommendations for implementation.

Deliverables

1. An inception report presenting the following:

   1.1 a detailed methodology based on this TOR and initial briefings/desk review, including planned timeframe, list of stakeholders to be consulted, proposed sampling methodology, analytical framework and protocols for data collection and analysis, and ethical procedures to be followed; an evaluability assessment and matrix showing data sources/ methods used to answer each of the review/ evaluation questions.

   1.2 initial findings based on a review of programme documentation, existing data, prior evaluations/reviews, and secondary data.

   1.3 an outline of key knowledge gaps not covered by this ToR, and any suggested additions/alterations to the proposed scope and overall ToR.

   1.4 Data collection tools.

2. Final report containing the following chapters:

• Climate Vulnerabilities and Environmental Risk Assessment: This chapter will analyse climate vulnerabilities and environmental risks specific to Narayanganj’s informal settlements (Rishipara and Sumilpara). It will outline the challenges and threats posed by climate change and other environmental factors.
• Recommended adaptation options: This chapter will highlight recommended adaptation options to address the identified climate vulnerabilities and environmental risks. It will include strategies and measures related to infrastructure improvements, land use planning, ecosystem restoration, and policy changes, focusing on the two target communities but also in the broader context of the city.
• Prioritised Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) and Ecosystem Restoration Interventions: This chapter will include a detailed list of prioritised NBS solutions relevant to the context and designed to mitigate climate-related challenges. These solutions will be assessed for their feasibility and potential impact on the local community. This chapter will outline the design and implementation details for piloting at least three NBS projects within the programme. It will include a budget, technical specifications, timelines, and a roadmap for executing these projects effectively.

The report should:

• As much as possible, the report should be jargon-free, clear and written.
• Not exceed 30 pages (Word document and PDF format)
• include an Executive Summary not more than 3 pages (containing an overview of the methods and analysis, conclusions, lessons learned, and specific recommendations, which is usable as a free-standing document), brief project background, the outline of the methodology used (including any limitations), findings, learnings and recommendations.
• ensure analysis is always backed up with relevant data, with reference to the data source.
• ensure recommendations made are specific and include relevant details for how they might be implemented.
• contain at least the following annexes: (i) Terms of Reference, (ii) Itinerary for field visit, (iii) List of documents reviewed, meetings attended, persons interviewed/involved in Focus Group Discussions, and (iv) Data collection tools.
• Include one electronic file containing (a clean version of) qualitative and quantitative data collected.

3. A validation workshop: should be heldto present and validate initial findings with key stakeholders before the completion of the final report.

4. Presentation of findings: A workshop (face-to-face or virtual) will be held to present the final findings of the study as well as the recommendations. The consultant will prepare a presentation to disseminate the findings and recommendations with slides and other resources.

Timeframe

The expected period of the consultancy is 30 days; the expected start date is October 2023, and deliverables are to be finalised by December 2023. The below is a proposed timeline, however, the consultant should submit a revised version as part of the inception report.

• Briefing meeting on the first contracted day: 3rd week of October
• Inception period (including briefings/ meetings, desk review; development of methodology and research tools): 3rd week of October
• The inception draft shared with the steering group: 4th week of October
• Feedback on the inception report shared: End of October
• Final inception report submitted: End of October
• Secondary research/ desk review: By Mid-November
• Primary research/ Fieldwork: By Mid-November
• Validation workshop: Third week of November
• Draft report submitted to steering group: End of November
• Feedback on the draft report provided to the consultant/ evaluation lead: First week of December
• Final report submitted: Second week of December
• Dissemination of review findings: Second week of December

Budget and payment schedule

An indicative budget for this evaluation is £35,000 This includes all costs related to the field visit (travel, subsistence, accommodation, security, or costs incurred in organising data collection), which will be managed, budgeted, and paid for by the consultant. The British Red Cross in Bangladesh can support logistical arrangements in the country.

Payment will be made as follows:

• 25% upon submission of the inception report
• 25% upon submission of the draft final report
• 50% upon approval of the final report and dissemination of findings