CONSULTANCY: Long range forecasting calibration in ICPAC
JOB DETAIL
DUTY STATION
Home-based, Remote
COMMENCEMENT OF DUTY
1 October 2024
or as soon as possible thereafterNATURE OF APPOINTMENT
Variable (depending on needs of Department/Division)
40 days
Organizational Unit
Regional Climate Prediction (RCP), in close coordination with IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)
Services Department
WMO is committed to achieving diversity and a balanced workforce. Applications are welcome from qualified women and men, including those with disabilities. The statutory retirement age after 1 January 2014 is 65. For external applicants, only those who are expected to complete the term of appointment will normally be considered.
DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
The objective of the consultancy is to lead work to develop and implement the Kharin et. al. 2017 scheme, and specifically to assist, coach and provide guidance to RCC-IGAD (ICPAC) personnel to:
1) Install in the RCC-IGAD forecasting suite a scheme to calibrate the GPC model precipitation outputs that returns measurably reliable monthly and seasonal probability forecasts (e.g., Kharin et al 2017, Monthly Weather Review);
2) Conduct experimentation to select optimum spatial and temporal averaging in construction of calibration coefficients;
3) Assess and compare the reliability of the new calibration procedure against that of the current operational system;
4) Implement the scheme in the RCC-IGAD operational suite for 12 rolling 3-month seasons and for 1- 2- and 3-month lead times, with capability to also calibrate forecasts for 4-month seasons (e.g., JJAS) as well as 1-month forecasts. The scheme to be implemented for all GPCs used by RCC-IGAD;
5) Operate and maintain the scheme and plan its extension to calibration of temperature forecasts;
6) Carry out other relevant duties as required.
DELIVERABLES
The consultant will provide the following deliverables to WMO:
– End October 2024: Inception report with detailed methodology and workplan.
– End January 2025: New skill-based calibration procedure for probabilistic, multi-model long-range forecasts installed at RCC-IGAD.
– End February 2025: Report showing reliability of rainfall probability forecasts before and after calibration for the three main seasons (MAM, JJAS and OND) and for selected lead-times and GPCs; and on the new scheme’s results for the forecast for MAM 2025.
– End March 2025: Final report detailing all achievements and recommendations for future work.
| QUALIFICATIONS | ||
| Education Degree in meteorology, climatology, or a field relevant to supporting the regional climate centre (RCC) functions in ICPAC. |
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| Experience 15 years of experience in dynamical ensemble seasonal forecasting, especially in the calibration of probabilistic outputs for precipitation and temperature. |
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| Other requirements Availability to: – Participate in online meetings and to perform the tasks as described. – Undertake two visits to ICPAC of at least 1-week duration and mentor scientists in the operational running of codes developed. |
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| Languages Excellent knowledge of English (both oral and written). Knowledge of other official languages of WMO would be an advantage. (Note: The official languages of the Organization are Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish.) |
Additional Information:
Proposed fee: 390 – 750 USD per day depending upon experience, knowledge and skills.
Focal point email for additional information: Anahit Hovsepyan ([email protected])
APPLICATIONS: Applications should be made online through the WMO e-recruitment system at https://erecruit.wmo.int/public/.
Do not send your application via multiple routes. Only applicants in whom WMO has a further interest will be contacted.
Shortlisted candidates may be required to sit a written test and/or an interview.
.Date of issue of vacancy notice:
