CONSULTANCY: Needs analysis for probabilistic forecast products
JOB DETAIL
DUTY STATION
Home-based, Remote
COMMENCEMENT OF DUTY
To be determinedNATURE OF APPOINTMENT
Variable (depending on needs of Department/Division)
4 months
Organizational Unit
DRR Technical Development Division (DTD), Disaster Risk Reduction, MHEWS Office and Public Services Branch (DMPS)
Services Department
WMO is committed to achieving diversity and a balanced workforce. Applications are welcome from qualified women and men, including those with disabilities. The statutory retirement age after 1 January 2014 is 65. For external applicants, only those who are expected to complete the term of appointment will normally be considered.DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
This assignment will start addressing the Output Number 1.1.10 of the Congress Operating Plan for 2024-2027, “Guidance and training material developed to support wider use of probabilistic forecasts for warning purposes” with the 2027 milestone defined as “All Members utilize probabilistic forecast for service delivery.” Development of a guidance and training material for the usage of multi-model ensemble and probabilistic forecast to issue warnings and communicate the uncertainty on different hazards, within the framework of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery (WMO-No. 1337).
A specific section will be dedicated to the usage of Tropical Cyclone probabilistic forecast, in alignment with the Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project led by WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The incumbent will perform the following duties:
1. Inventory: Review what is available on the use of probabilistic forecast products (training opportunities, guides, documents, etc.; covering current methodologies, challenges, and advancements in probabilistic forecasting and its use in impact-based forecast and warning services as feasible). This should be extended to the publications and training material dealing with the communication of forecast uncertainty. Check WMO and partners such as COMET, ECMWF, EUMeTrain, Regional Training centers, etc.
2. Needs analysis: Investigate what are the gaps, requirements, concerns, challenges, and expectations regarding probabilistic forecasts from the operational services:
a. Engage with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs).
b. Design a survey to identify the needs for capacity development of human resources on the topic.
3. Analysis of the survey: Identification of the needs.
4. Report: Clearly define what are the gaps and needs and provide recommendations on what would be the most appropriate solution to close the gaps.
5. Ensure inputs from the Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project and the Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting – both led by WMO WWRP.
6. Address emerging topics such as the role of Artificial Intelligence to ensure the identified solution will endure over time;
7. Carry out other relevant duties as required.
DELIVERABLES AT THE END OF THE CONTRACT:
Report detailing what the gaps are and identifying what would be the most appropriate solution to close the gaps to support wider use of probabilistic forecasts for warning purposes.
| QUALIFICATIONS | ||
| Education Master’s degree in meteorology or atmospheric science. |
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| Experience – At least 5 years in operational forecasting, warning, and messaging including by making use of ensemble/probabilistic products. – Experience in needs analysis. |
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| Other requirements Knowledge and Skills: – Comprehensive knowledge in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and ensemble prediction systems, including their interpretation, use and evaluation. – Ability to analyze and interpret forecast model outputs, ensemble spread, and probability distributions to communicate uncertainty effectively. – Knowledge of tropical cyclone forecasting, and the specific challenges associated with predicting cyclone tracks, intensity, rainfall, and impacts. – Excellent writing skills to develop clear, concise, and well-structured document. |
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| Languages Excellent knowledge of English (both oral and written). Knowledge of other official languages of the Organization would be an advantage. (Note: The official languages of the Organization are Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish.) |
Additional Information:
Payband D : 620-750 USD per day excluding travel related costs
Focal point email for additional information : Ms Anne-Claire Fontan: [email protected]
APPLICATIONS: Applications should be made online through the WMO e-recruitment system at https://erecruit.wmo.int/public/.
Do not send your application via multiple routes. Only applicants in whom WMO has a further interest will be contacted.
Shortlisted candidates may be required to sit a written test and/or an interview.Date of issue of vacancy notice:
