Impact of Ongoing Conflict in Sudan on Selected Agro-Industries in Greater Khartoum State

Background

Since the outbreak of war in Sudan in April 2023, IFPRI has been actively monitoring the conflict’s impact on the country’s agrifood system. Several research reports and policy briefs have been published to enhance understanding of both the direct and indirect effects of the conflict.

As the conflict nears its second year, significant shifts are occurring, particularly in the Greater Khartoum area. These changes include the gradual return of displaced populations, increasing the demand for food, healthcare, utilities, and education.

In response to this evolving situation, IFPRI proposes a rapid assessment study to analyze the conflict’s impact on the agro-industrial sector in Greater Khartoum State.

The agro-industrial sector in Greater Khartoum is mainly concentrated in Khartoum North, with additional industries located in Khartoum South (between Khartoum and Gezira states). This assessment will focus primarily on Khartoum North, where control is shifting from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). Given the volatile security situation, contingency plans will be developed to accommodate potential shifts in control. The field-based assessment will be contingent upon a security evaluation conducted by an external body, such as the UN or SAF (if under SAF control).

Key Activities

Industry Enumeration and Classification: Conduct key informant interviews to estimate the number of industries in Khartoum North, focusing on wheat mills, cooking oil mills, and packaging factories.

Damage Assessment Using Satellite Imagery: Utilize geospatial mapping to identify the extent of physical damage to agro-industrial facilities, including wheat mills, cooking oil mills, and packaging factories.

Field Assessments Planning (Scenario-Based Approach): Develop plans for two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: RSF maintains control of the industrial sector.

Scenario 2: Control reverts to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Technical Field Visits:

– Assemble expert teams for on-the-ground assessments.

– Establish security protocols and conduct a pilot visit before full deployment.

– If full assessment is not possible due to security issues, limit the assessment to a safe and accessible sample of agro-industries.

– Evaluate damage, rehabilitation costs, and estimated recovery time.

Ancillary Challenges and Recovery Planning:

– Identify additional barriers to industrial recovery, such as unexploded ordnance, power and water supply constraints, and labor shortages.

– Engage with factory owners to discuss operational challenges and potential recovery pathways.

Expected Outcomes

The assignment is expected to deliver the following outcomes:

– Comprehensive damage assessment of key agro-industries in the Greater Khartoum State.

– Scenario-based strategies for industry rehabilitation.

– Policy recommendations to support industrial recovery and food security in the Greater Khartoum State and in the country at large.

Deliverables

Required Qualifications

IFPRI seeks a consultant responsible for overseeing the entire study, including assembling the team, managing technical aspects, and delivering high-quality outputs within the specified timeline. The consultant will handle all tasks from data collection to analysis and reporting.

Consultant Requirements:

– Extensive expertise in Sudan’s agro-industrial sector.

– Over 25 years of experience in developing and managing wheat or cooking oil industries in Sudan.

– Comprehensive experience in product design, management, and marketing.

– Proven track record working with local, national, and international institutions.

– Demonstrated ability to manage teams and ensure timely delivery of results.

Team Composition:

– Junior GIS Analyst and Data Analyst with expertise in industrial sector analysis, supported by published work. S/he will be responsible for data analysis across the project.

– Technical Teams (Due to the condensed timeline, three teams will be assembled):

o Mechanical Engineers (3) with a minimum of 10 years’ experience and a BSc in Mechanical Engineering.

o Electrical Engineers (3) with at least 5 years’ experience and a BSc in Electrical Engineering.

o Structural Civil Engineers (3) with a minimum of 10 years’ experience and a BSc in Civil or Structural Engineering.

– Support Staff:

o An administrative support officer.

o A financial analyst with 5+ years’ experience in financial analysis, budgeting, and cost estimation (degree required).

o Two drivers to support field logistics.

Application Requirements:

– Company Profile/Proposal

– Financial Proposal

– CVs of key personnel