The main activity for this role consists of economic modelling using the Green Economy Model (GEM) for Zambia’s Green Growth Strategy and technical selection and refinement of sectoral scenarios. Working closely with sectoral experts in Zambia, the consultant will be recruited to lead modelling efforts using GEM. Overall, the modelling work will entail the following activities/tasks:
1. Stocktaking: Review of existing models’ results and scenarios in order to assess data provision/gaps and assure alignment with GEM. This activity also aims at incorporating energy and other sectoral model outputs with the GEM. An initial list of data requirements will be drafted and shared with MoGE project focal point national experts/ consultants.
2. Scope of modelling and selection of indicators: Identification of the scope of the model, conceptualization of the model, with the Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) or system maps at the national level including macro-economic variables and indicatorssuch as population, GDP -for aggregate agriculture, industry and services-, as well as land cover and land -use and GHG emissions from energy and land. The CLDs reflect the interrelationships of different variables of a system/sector in a diagrammatic way. This is an important step as the variables of the model should be defined and informed the data collection process.
3. Review and validation: The CLDs will be reviewed and validated by comparing the information received with reports and data.
4. Guidance to data collection: The consultant in close collaboration with the GGGI project team will guide national policy officials on the type of data that are required and need to be collected. The consultant will guide GGGI staff and national experts/ consultants to collect additional data from national-level statistics that are either available in the country or from international databases. Data on technological and policy interventions in different sectors will be collected by GGGI staff and national experts/ consultants for building the alternative scenarios. All collected data will be reviewed by the consultant before integrating them in the model for further analysis.
5. Model creation, parameterization and calibration of the business as usual (BAU) scenario: Creation of the mathematical model, consisting of the translation of the CLDs into mathematical modules, with numerical inputs and equations, depending on data availability. The model will also include the necessary macroeconomic indicators and relevant information listed in task/activity 4.
6. Review and feedback to the creation of the alternative scenarios and analysis of results at the national level and in different sectors. The selection/validation of the different interventions and scenarios will be based on a (virtual) stakeholders’ consultation process/workshops. The alternative scenarios can be simulated incorporating the different technological and policy interventions selected during the stakeholders’ consultation. The consultant will review and provide feedback to the assessment of the costs and benefits of Zambia low carbon development pathways.
7. Participation at the Final virtual Stakeholders Consultation and Validation: for scenarios results’ validation and refinements with stakeholders.
The Consultant competencies include:
– Extensive knowledge and proven experience using System Dynamics Modelling approach to support policy planning at national level in the context of low-carbon development.
– Previous experience integrating the energy models and other sectoral models and data to System Dynamics Modelling approach is essential.
– Extensive experience in formulating policy in consultative processes, working with government officials, sectoral and policy experts and key other stakeholders.
– Strong expertise in macro-economy and economy-wide policies in the context of low-carbon development.
– Experience in results interpretation for long-term development and policy design.
– Excellent knowledge of policy and technology options for low-carbon transformation.
The Consultant shall evaluate any risk on environment, direct and indirect, associated with the project. Impacts, if relevant, should be identified in the course of project development and, in the project proposals, shall detail the impacts, risks, and mitigation measures or strategies that may be required. The Consultant shall be guided by pertinent regulations; GGGI’s policies regarding gender and social safeguards, social inclusion, and poverty reduction; and any relevant standards and policies of prospective donors, such as those of the World Bank.
Based in Seoul, the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) is an intergovernmental organization founded to support and promote a model of economic growth known as “green growth”, which targets key aspects of economic performance such a poverty reduction, job creation, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. GGGI works with developing and emerging countries around the world, building their capacity and working collaboratively on green growth policies that can impact the lives of millions. The organization partners with countries, multilateral institutions, government bodies, and private sector to help build economies that grow strongly and are more efficient and sustainable in the use of natural resources, less carbon intensive, and more resilient to climate change.
GGGI supports stakeholders through complementary and integrated workstreams in green growth planning, policy development, investment, implementation, and knowledge sharing that deliver comprehensive products designed to assist in developing, financing, and mainstreaming green growth in national economic development plans. GGGI’s interventions emphasize change in four priority areas considered to be essential to transforming countries’ economies including energy, water, land-use and green cities.
Zambia is in the process of becoming a member of GGGI. GGGI already has a representative in Lusaka to support the government’s green growth activities.
The overall aim of the green economy assessment will be to enhance the Zambia’s Government’s (GoZ) ability to identify and prioritize its green growth policies. The country recently launched its 8th National Development Plan, which already includes several green growth goals. At the same time, the National Green Growth Strategy is currently being elaborated. GGGI’s assignment will support this process by providing the macroeconomic analysis to make sure the strategy’s goals will be economically sound, consistent, and optimal with regard to their costs and benefits. Eventually, the Green Economy Strategy guides the GoZ to implement its commitment to the Paris Agreement. Therefore, the work will include conducting light analysis, preparing greenhouse gas emissions and development scenarios, and identifying policy options in priority sectors.
The Zambia GEM project is organized around four main tasks:
1.1 Consultation Meetings: through consultation with key ministries and sectors on the shared understanding of green economy in Zambia and scoping of the work
1.2 Adding/modifying Economic sectors beyond standard GEM framework upon GGGI’s suggestion
2.1a Identificaton of green economy indicators and their relationships, conceptualization of the Green Economy Model based on existing LEDS sectors
2.1b Identificaton of green economy indicators and their relationships, conceptualization of the Green Economy Model of added sectors
2.2 Identification of sectoral green growth interventions
2.3 1st National stakeholders’ validation workshop undertaken and feedback received from national experts
3.1 Developing a BAU scenario
3.2 2nd national stakeholders’ validation workshop
3.3 Developing/ modelling green economy scenario(s) with green growth interventions
3.4a Assessing Costs of green growth actions and scenarios
3.4b Assessing extended Banefits of green growth actions and scenarios
3.5 3rd National stakeholders’ validation workshop of scenarios and collection of feedback from national stakeholders
4.1 Write up of the Zambia GE technical report
The specific objective of the project is to develop a concise and strategic green economy assessment describing the pathways to greening key sectors of the country.
The green economy assessment will:
To date, the project team has initiated consultation with the Government on project planning implementation and review of key policy documents in Zambia. Preparing a green economy assessment complements the work that the Government is already carrying out for the development of its Green Economy Strategy, and potentially the long term strategy of Zambia.
GGGI plans to work with partners and national experts for data collection, modelling efforts and elaboration of green growth scenarios. Following the consultative and modelling exercise, GGGI will draft, in consultation with the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment (MoGEE) and relevant stakeholders, the comprehensive green economy assessment report.
The proposed activities for the overall project are described below:
The expected outputs of the Consultant/Service Provider are as follows:
Output A – Stocktaking, Consultations and Validation of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)
Deliverables:
a) Stocktaking summary report,
b) Consultations completed (by teleconference),
c) CLD validated.
Output B: Model Creation, Calibration, Parametrization, and Guidance on Data Collection
Deliverables:
a) Model delivery (including CLDs, variables, mathematical equations, etc.),
b) Model description report.
Output C: Review (and feedback) of the Creation of the Alternative Scenarios and Results
Deliverables:
a) Review and provide feedback to improve the analysis and results of BAU and alternative scenarios (including interventions),
b) Review and feedback to improve the analysis of costs and benefits of low carbon emissions pathways for Zambia.
c) GEM Zambia report including: i) description of overall modelling approach and main input variables, ii) description of the baseline and BAU scenario (including main assumptions) and results, iii) review and feedback of the description of alternative scenarios and results iv) review and feedback of information on interventions included in the alternative scenarios – review of description of interventions, abatement potential, costs/benefits.
Output D: Drafting and reviewing GEM related sections
Deliverables:
a) Final database and GEM for Zambia files
b) Drafting of the GEM model specifications related sections (e.g. technical report)
c) Review of the GE document and provision of feedback for coherence and quality.
Timeline | Month Delivery date | Payment |
Output A | Month 1 | 25% |
Output B | Month 2 | 25% |
Output C | Month 3 | 25% |
Output D | Month 4 | 25% |
All reports and outputs must be in English, in accordance with GGGI’s formatting requirements, and submitted in electronic formats along with complete sets of raw data (including excel and software files), research materials, and interview notes.
i) Timetable
This project is expected to be completed by August 31, 2023, starting by May 10th, 2023 with a tentative timetable illustrated in the previous section.
ii) Reporting Arrangements
The Consultant/service provider work progress will be monitored primarily through periodic review meetings, the precise schedule of which is to be determined based on consultation with the Consultant/Service Provider.
The maximum budget available for this assignment is USD 12,000, inclusive of any VAT or other taxes or costs.
Child protection – GGGI is committed to child protection, irrespective of whether any specific area of work involves direct contact with children. GGGI’s Child Protection Policy is written in accordance with the Convention on the Rights of the Child.