World Resources Institute (WRI) intends to award a fixed term consultancy contract to individuals and /or organizational consultants (1) to develop a BAU scenario of land degradation and potential restoration opportunities in the GRV by 2030, building on the baseline developed by WRI; (2) to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation on food security, income, poverty and labor productivity.

Founded in 1982, WRI is a global environmental think tank that goes beyond research to put ideas into action. We work with governments, companies, and civil society to build solutions to urgent environmental challenges. WRI’s transformative ideas protect the earth and promote development because sustainability is essential to meeting human needs and fulfilling human aspirations in the future.

The Greater Rift Valley (GRV) Landscape in Kenya is home to the country’s most important intact forests that are the source of 75% of the country’s water supply. The GRV landscape is about 15.9 million ha across 14 counties, including Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu and West Pokot in the northern GRV, Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Laikipia, Nakuru and Nyandarua in the central GRV and Murang’a, Narok, Kiambu, Makueni and Kajiado in the southern GRV. Together, the 14 counties contributed 8.11% to Kenya’s GDP in 2020 (Kenyan national statistical Bureau, 2021). Of all sectors, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector represent the largest Gross County Product (GCP) contributor, accounting for 33.7% of all sector GCP combined in the GRV, with significant variations from the North to the South.

Across Kenya, GVR landscape has some of the highest levels land and forest degradation. Characterized by declining agricultural productivity, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, increased carbon emissions and risk of natural disasters such as floods and desertification – continued degradation is a major challenge to the region and the country socio-economic and ecosystems sustainability (Olesen et al., 2022). Chief among them in smallholder setting is unsustainable farming practices and agricultural expansion into natural habitations amid rapidly growing population. In the effort to meet rising demand for food and livelihood, smallholders are not only forced to intensify unsustainable agricultural and land use practices, but to also expand land under agricultural production, resulting in direct competition between the agriculture sector and natural fragile ecosystems such as forest areas. For instance, it is reported that since 2010, 11% of the natural forests have been lost, largely due to urban expansion, uncontrolled logging, and agricultural land expansion (D’Amico et al., 2022). This is resulting in significant biophysical impacts such as increased sedimentation of water bodies from soil erosion (Kiage et al., 2007). Deforestation has been observed to decrease infiltration rates of the land, reduced water quality and ability of catchment areas to support flow of rivers especially in the dry season (Were et al., 2013, Kiage et al., 2007). Land degradation will lead to decline in bird species, loss in plant biodiversity, and decline in land productivity (Maitima et al., 2009).

Forest and land degradation is a major threat to food security and livelihoods of millions of people through spillover effects, which refer to the situation that negative impacts of land degradation experienced by nature-dependent economic activities in one region will eventually affect the economy across country. Degradation of farmland has dire food security and 2

livelihood implications for over 25% of the Kenyan population that subsist on the affected land – majority of rural smallholder farmers already experiencing severe food insecurity and high levels of poverty. Conversely, these circumstances and habits perpetuate a vicious cycle whereby soils become less productive, forcing smallholders to continue extreme farming methods and to expand into forested land in search of arable land and livelihood opportunities (illegal logging and charcoal production), which leads to further degradation, loss of essential ecosystem services, a decline in agricultural productivity, and a loss of carbon sinks.

To demonstrate the urgency and significance of land restoration in the GRV to reverse the already degraded landscapes, WRI has embarked on a research project since April 2024.

To do this, a crucial first step is to develop a baseline scenario that will allow a comprehensive understanding of the historical trends of land degradation in the GRV, their biophysical, economic and social impacts at both local and national levels. Furthermore, a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario will be developed to illustrate how the trend will continue and what would be the future costs of damage if no land restoration interventions will be implemented at scale while regional climate change impacts continue to accelerate. In line with the second objective, we will be keen to gain insight into farmers’ knowledge, preferences, and perceptions on sustainable agronomic practices specifically agroecology and regenerative agriculture, whilst identifying gaps and opportunities for their adoption. The baseline data from objectives one and two will also serve as a foundation for monitoring and evaluating the restoration impacts over time.

The objectives of this 5-month consultancy are twofold: (1) to develop a BAU scenario of land degradation and potential restoration opportunities in the GRV by 2030, building on the baseline developed by WRI; (2) to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation on food security, income, poverty and labor productivity.

First, the consultant will develop BAU scenarios that will depict one or more plausible future scenarios of land degradation in the GRV without considerable restoration efforts. More specially, the consultant will develop models to project the future land use and land use changes in the GRV, the state of land degradation by 2030 (including erosion, loss of fertile soils, etc.). In other words, if current trends continue, what would be the projected future losses of crop productivity and other crucial ecosystem services (such as water availability and runoffs, timber production, livestock production, etc.). It is important to note that the scenario development should also take into consideration of different modelled pathways for future GHG emissions and temperature trajectories as projected by the IPCC, and other anthropogenic factors such as population growth, drivers of land use change, and anticipated country transitions, etc. The consultant will work closely with WRI to validate datasets to be used in scenario modelling. 3

Furthermore, the consultant will develop an inventory of potential restoration interventions that could reverse the trends of land degradation while addressing the key drivers of degradation. Building on the existing work developed by WRI technical team, the consultant will help develop restoration priority maps that will indicate priority geographies and suitable restoration interventions for maximizing intended restoration outcomes, such as water flows & sedimentation reduction, crop yields, and/or carbon sequestration.

Next, the consultant is expected to lead a primary socioeconomic data collection effort, which will allow the establishment of a socioeconomic baseline for analyzing the impacts of land degradation on the key livelihood aspects of the local communities, including food security, income, poverty, labor productivity and other opportunities. The consultant is expected to deliver an analysis report on objective 2 regarding farmers practices – detailing the best-bet practices as informed by data that WRI should take up food intervention with restoration champions. Key questions to be addressed are – what best-bet practices were implemented, where and why they were implemented. It is important to note that while the design of the questionnaire and sample protocols will be led by WRI technical team, the consultant will be responsible for carrying out field data collection activities and day-to-day management of the enumerators. Importantly, the socioeconomic analysis will take into consideration a social gender equity lens.

Finally, the consultant will also be responsible for the writeup of the detailed methodology, data used and model results. The draft report of the consultancy will be incorporated into the project progress report that WRI core team is developing.

The consultant will report to the GRV impact research lead at WRI and collaborate with other members of the GRV land degradation impact research team as needed.

More specifically, the consultant will complete the following activities:

Activity 1: Identify, develop and harmonize datasets for spatial analysis and validating maps

5 months consultancy (spread over 70 days), starting upon the signature of the contract. However, deliverable 3.1 must be completed by 31 December 2024 and deliverable 3.2 by 31 January 2025.

Compensation will be based on a total fixed fee for the delivery of all required deliverables. Therefore, WRI will not reimburse for miscellaneous costs (e.g., travel, office supplies). Rather, these costs should be built into the total cost of the contract. If the Consultant sub-contracts other individuals or organizations to assist in the performance of the Services, the Consultant shall be responsible for any payments to such individuals or organizations. Each payment will be based on the receipt and acceptance by WRI of a product/deliverable and invoice.

Please note that WRI is an IRS-registered 501(c)3, tax-exempt organization. WRI is not VAT exempt. All prices or quotes should include VAT and tax, as applicable.

The selected vendor will be able to demonstrate capacity in similar work, particularly:

Prospective vendors should submit:

All expressions of interest and questions about this RFP must be received via email to the contacts below by 6 November 2024, 24h00 (Washington, DC). Answers to the questions

will be shared will all parties who have asked questions or otherwise expressed interest.

Name: Lawrence Eric Ng’ang’a

Title: AFR100 Restoration Monitoring Associate

Email: [email protected]

Name: James Wangu

Title: Food Systems Transformation Associate

Email: [email protected]

Cc

Name: Gladys Maina

Title: Grants & Finance Specialist

Email: [email protected]

All proposals must be sent by 6 November 2024, 24h00 (Washington, DC) in electronic format to the same contact listed above.

The following elements will be the primary considerations in evaluating all proposals submitted in response to this RFP :

The bidder offering the best overall value will be selected. For this procurement, price and non-price aspects are considered to be of approximately equal importance.

No proposal development costs shall be charged to WRI / all expenses are to be borne by the bidders. WRI may award to the bidder offering best value without discussion. However, WRI reserves the right to seek bidder clarifications and to negotiate with those bidders deemed to be within a competitive range.

WRI may, at its discretion and without explanation to the prospective vendors/organizations/consultants, etc., choose to discontinue this RFP without obligation to such prospective vendors/organizations/consultants, etc. or make multiple awards under this RFP. Contracts will not be awarded to vendors/organizations/consultants, etc. debarred by the US government or named on restricted parties lists.